1st Race
CLASSIC GAIT (#6) is a first-time starter from the barn of Eric Reed, who has very good numbers with horses debuting for a claiming tag. This one shows solid works and rates the edge in what appears to be a fairly weak race. CLIQUE (#5) drops in class after an even effort at Turfway and trainer Tom Amoss is overdue for a winner. RECKLESS BETTY (#4) also takes the class plunge and fits in here. 

 

2nd Race
MUTAKAWAY (#8) just missed at this level in his latest race at Presque Isle. He should be in good position throughout with Kent Desormeaux aboard and rates the edge against these. HAYLEY GO BLUE (#11) prefers more distance but has won 13 races and will be running at the end. SKIPPY O (#3) owns a win over the Keeneland Polytrack and is a definite threat.

 

3rd Race
CRAWFORD COUNTY (#10) faded after pressing the pace in a race over this surface last Wednesday. She returns on short rest but drops in for a tag and is capable of winning at this level. CASINO KAY (#4) looked good in her score at Turfway. A repeat of that effort makes her tough to beat. OH LOVELY (#7) shortens up and will be running at the end under jockey Calvin Borel.

 

4th Race
EQUALLY (#2) has finished in the money in six of her eight races and trainer Bill Mott’s horses are running very well right now. She just missed at today’s distance back at Saratoga and should get her maiden score under Kent Desormeaux. SEALED BID (#8) comes off of a solid effort and ran well over this strip last meet. She is the one to beat. BREATHTAKING (#12) has only had two races and is eligible to improve.

 

5th Race
EL ALEMAN (#9) finished fourth in a similar race over this turf course on October 4. He gets blinkers this afternoon and has proven that he can get the distance. Give him the edge with Rene Douglas back aboard. HIDDEN GLANCE (#7) just missed at Saratoga two starts back and a repeat of that one makes him the one to beat. DARBOY (#11) finished right behind the top pick at Kentucky Downs and is a contender. 

 

6th Race
MEDLEY (#7) makes her Polytrack debut off some solid efforts on the turf. She will be running at the end in a race that figures to have a lively pace and rates the slight edge in a very tough allowance test. VICTORIANNA (#3) won a race over this track last meet and probably needed her race at Turfway after a four-month layoff. She will be tough to handle with Julien Leparoux in the irons. QUOTA (#2) has won two of three this year and trainer Al Stall is having a very good meet.

 

7th Race
STARGLEAM (#9) exits a key maiden race at Turfway. She finished fifth in that one, but trainer Ian Wilkes’ runners usually improve with experience and she could spring the mild upset with Calvin Borel picking up the mount. FLORENTINO (#6) showed nothing last out but ran well in his debut and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin adds blinkers today. Look for him to improve. UNO MAS (#2) is a well-bred runner from the Steve Asmussen barn who was second in both of his races at Arlington. 

 

8th Race
DYNA’S GREELEY (#8) looked good winning her debut at Louisiana Downs. She is bred to love the move to the turf and rates a slight edge in what looks like a well-matched allowance test. LOVEYOU EVERYBODY (#3) also won at first asking for trainer Ken McPeek on the Kentucky Cup undercard. She closed strongly in that one and figures to be tough to beat with Robby Albarado in the irons. MAJESTIC FELINE (#1) didn’t fire last out but is back on the grass and is definitely capable of improvement.

 

9th Race
EL BOMBA (#6) is a nine-year-old veteran who is in top form. He has had a remarkable year with five of his 11 career wins coming since January. He is capable of adding another one for trainer Jeff Greenhill, who is also having a banner season. PRINCE KONG (#8) has been narrowly beaten by the top pick twice this year and picks up Julien Leparoux today. BOULDER TIGER (#5) has been hooking better and has to be respected.

MINISTER'S JOY made up nearly 7 lengths in the course of running in an overnight stakes on turf at Belmont last time out over ground he probably didn't like. He had a wide trip in this race last year but was a nose loser in the Ben Ali-G3  in April of 2007. He has perhaps the quickest late kick in this field and will be hard to beat if he can get a good trip. DOMINICAN loves this track and most recently was 3rd over 1 1/2 miles at Turfway in the TP Fall Championship-G3; his stalking style makes him the one to reel in turning for home. MAMBO IN SEATTLE tackled older foes in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 last time and beat half of them; he saw a 3-race win streak snapped by a nose loss in the Travers-G1 two back and will be very competitive if he gets a better hold of polytrack this time. WAZATA BAY and BROTHERS NICHOLAS finished 3-4 in the Hawthorne Gold Cup-G2 last time out and would be no surprise; the former has won 3 stakes this year on dirt, but has yet to hit the board on poly; the latter has been off the board only once on poly and has had three works here this meet. SECRET GETAWAY lost the Ontario Derby last time out on polytrack at Woodbine by a diminishing neck; note he was moved on a DQ here in April in a N1X over polytrack; he could surprise.

Keeneland’s last race of the meet is the Grade 3 Fayette. A full field gathers for the final race and it should prove to be a very competitive event. Mambo in Seattle will take a lot of play for trainer Neil Howard. The colt made a huge run in the Travers and just got beat a nose by Colonel John. That race probably took a lot out of him as he was a well- beaten 4th in his next start. He faced Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over a sloppy track and the colt didn’t fire. My gut tells me he isn’t quite back to top form for this one either or else he would be in CA. In addition to those questions, how will he handle the synthetic surface. Add all this in with a very short price and I think I will look elsewhere. I like the way Secret Getaway is coming in to this race. The 3 year old looks like he may just be finding his best stride. He turned in a big effort in his last and was just beaten a nose by Sand Cove. Sand Cove returned to win his next out. Proven over the poly and the distance he appears to be the one in here on the upswing. Dominican likes this Keeneland surface and shows up fresh. He hasn’t had the best year having only 1 win and that was an allowance at Presque Isle but his recent work over this course suggests he is ready for a decent effort. Stream Cat can boast consistent triple digit Beyer numbers but his last was a big disappointment and note that he adds Lasix for the first time in his career. Have to question where his confidence level is at coming in to this race.

 

Note that today’s closing-day program will begin at a special time of 12:55 p.m. so that Keeneland can better accommodate the Breeders’ Cup simulcast. The seven-race program will wrap up around 4:50 p.m. eastern.

 

We hinted yesterday that the first significant rainfall of the meeting could change the dynamic of the racing, and it certainly appeared that the rail was much better Friday than it had been in some time. Several successful trips were negotiated by saving ground.

 

Mike Maker tallied a win Friday to give him an 8-7 lead over Ken McPeek for the training title at Keeneland. McPeek, however, has 4 chances to Maker’s 1 on the closing-day Saturday card.

 

McPeek’s Saturday dance-card:

Race 3: Stormy Lake (10-1 morning line odds)
Race 4: Stacie’s Smile (10-1)
Race 5: Sandstorm Cat (5-1)
Race 6: Hard Strike (4-1)

 

Because it’s closing day, there will be mandatory payouts in the Super High Five and pick six today, which have carryover pools of $10,535 and $2,120, respectively.

 

 

A dry day is in store for closing-day with a high forecasted in the mid-50s and partly cloudy skies.

 

 

Each day we’ll take a look at the previous day(s) of action here to glean any developing handicapping angles.
 
Jockey Miguel Mena continued to run roughshod over the colony Friday with 3 winners, adding to a hat trick on Thursday. He’s rocketed into third in the season standings with 12 winners – half of which have come in the past 2 days. Clearly, he’s the rider of choice with the big-name jocks out of town riding the Breeders’ Cup.

 

Trainer Rusty Arnold continued his hot run Friday with his third winner in two days, while trainer Al Stall, Jr. kept his dream meeting rolling Friday when notching his sixth win. Stall has a remarkable 16: 6-5-1 record at the stand.

 

Here’s a quick synopsis of Friday’s action:

 

Race 1 – 1-1/16M: 6th by 4-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, saved ground/angled out, 1-1 favorite

Race 2 – 7F: 6th by 9 lengths after a mile-mile, 4-wide, 21-1 odds

Race 3 – 5-1/2F: 1st by 1 length after a half-mile, rail, 9-1 odds

Race 4 – 6F: 5th by 3-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 3-4 paths, 14-1 odds

Race 5 – 7F: 9th by 6-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 6-wide, 7-1 odds

Race 6 – 1-1/16M (turf): 7th by 4-1/4 lengths after a half-mile, cleared 5-wide/inside late, 11-1 odds

Race 7 – 6F: 1st by a head after a half-mile, rail, 5-2 odds

Race 8 – 1-1/16M: 6th by 2-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 3-wide, 2-1 favorite

Race 9 – 1-1/8M: 6th by 2-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, saved ground, 7-1 odds

Race 5 today is a 1-1/16 miles allowance on the turf. Of the 7 races on grass we’ve seen at this distance this meeting, only 1 winner was closer than 2 lengths off the pacesetter after the opening half-mile, Jessamine Stakes wire-jobber LARAGH.

 

Only 1 of 8 seven-furlong allowance races this meet have been won in dirt-to-Polytrack style. Five have been captured Poly-to-Poly with 2 turf-to-Poly winners. Keep that in mind when analyzing Race 6 today.

 

Fans have been pretty well dialed-in with 1-1/8 miles routes on the Polytrack this season, so form might be expected to hold in the Race 7 Fayette Stakes. Ten of the 11 races held at this distance this season have been won by horses 7-1 or less on the toteboard, with the biggest “bomber” a mere 10-1.

 

 

As trainer Mike Maker tries to ice the leading trainer crown today in Race 2 with his lone entrant on the card, ASHIMA, it could benefit us to take a deeper look at this filly’s most-recent win at Keeneland (Oct. 11, Race 1). She stretches out from “about” 7 furlongs to 1-1/16 miles and once again meets runner-up MONTEREY BAY.

 

Looking at the free Trakus T-Charts at Keeneland.com, ASHIMA was clearly strongest over the final furlong-plus, clocking :16.01, the best in the field. She out-ran MONTEREY BAY by about 1-1/2 lengths over the final stretch. She also lost about 1-1/4 lengths in ground traveled in comparison to MONTEREY BAY. By all indications, stretching out in distance, ASHIMA would be the head-to-head play over her rival.

 

 

The kiss of death got to Friday’s Play of the Day as LOCKBACK was hammered to 6-to-5 favoritism and collapsed under the weight of the expectations. Ugh. We’re still a solid 16: 5-2-3 on the season, but let’s not go out without one more score!

 

AMANWELLA should get this card off to a fast start in Race 1, as trainer Graham Motion’s stable has found its stride at season’s end. This talented juvenile turns back in distance and ought to find a return to the maiden special weight ranks to her liking. Alcibiades winner DREAM EMPRESS returned to run a fantastic second yesterday in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, so the strength of AMANWELLA’s last race is undeniable.