Note that today’s closing-day program will begin at a special time of 12:55 p.m. so that Keeneland can better accommodate the Breeders’ Cup simulcast. The seven-race program will wrap up around 4:50 p.m. eastern.

 

We hinted yesterday that the first significant rainfall of the meeting could change the dynamic of the racing, and it certainly appeared that the rail was much better Friday than it had been in some time. Several successful trips were negotiated by saving ground.

 

Mike Maker tallied a win Friday to give him an 8-7 lead over Ken McPeek for the training title at Keeneland. McPeek, however, has 4 chances to Maker’s 1 on the closing-day Saturday card.

 

McPeek’s Saturday dance-card:

Race 3: Stormy Lake (10-1 morning line odds)
Race 4: Stacie’s Smile (10-1)
Race 5: Sandstorm Cat (5-1)
Race 6: Hard Strike (4-1)

 

Because it’s closing day, there will be mandatory payouts in the Super High Five and pick six today, which have carryover pools of $10,535 and $2,120, respectively.

 

 

A dry day is in store for closing-day with a high forecasted in the mid-50s and partly cloudy skies.

 

 

Each day we’ll take a look at the previous day(s) of action here to glean any developing handicapping angles.
 
Jockey Miguel Mena continued to run roughshod over the colony Friday with 3 winners, adding to a hat trick on Thursday. He’s rocketed into third in the season standings with 12 winners – half of which have come in the past 2 days. Clearly, he’s the rider of choice with the big-name jocks out of town riding the Breeders’ Cup.

 

Trainer Rusty Arnold continued his hot run Friday with his third winner in two days, while trainer Al Stall, Jr. kept his dream meeting rolling Friday when notching his sixth win. Stall has a remarkable 16: 6-5-1 record at the stand.

 

Here’s a quick synopsis of Friday’s action:

 

Race 1 – 1-1/16M: 6th by 4-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, saved ground/angled out, 1-1 favorite

Race 2 – 7F: 6th by 9 lengths after a mile-mile, 4-wide, 21-1 odds

Race 3 – 5-1/2F: 1st by 1 length after a half-mile, rail, 9-1 odds

Race 4 – 6F: 5th by 3-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 3-4 paths, 14-1 odds

Race 5 – 7F: 9th by 6-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 6-wide, 7-1 odds

Race 6 – 1-1/16M (turf): 7th by 4-1/4 lengths after a half-mile, cleared 5-wide/inside late, 11-1 odds

Race 7 – 6F: 1st by a head after a half-mile, rail, 5-2 odds

Race 8 – 1-1/16M: 6th by 2-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, 3-wide, 2-1 favorite

Race 9 – 1-1/8M: 6th by 2-1/2 lengths after a half-mile, saved ground, 7-1 odds

Race 5 today is a 1-1/16 miles allowance on the turf. Of the 7 races on grass we’ve seen at this distance this meeting, only 1 winner was closer than 2 lengths off the pacesetter after the opening half-mile, Jessamine Stakes wire-jobber LARAGH.

 

Only 1 of 8 seven-furlong allowance races this meet have been won in dirt-to-Polytrack style. Five have been captured Poly-to-Poly with 2 turf-to-Poly winners. Keep that in mind when analyzing Race 6 today.

 

Fans have been pretty well dialed-in with 1-1/8 miles routes on the Polytrack this season, so form might be expected to hold in the Race 7 Fayette Stakes. Ten of the 11 races held at this distance this season have been won by horses 7-1 or less on the toteboard, with the biggest “bomber” a mere 10-1.

 

 

As trainer Mike Maker tries to ice the leading trainer crown today in Race 2 with his lone entrant on the card, ASHIMA, it could benefit us to take a deeper look at this filly’s most-recent win at Keeneland (Oct. 11, Race 1). She stretches out from “about” 7 furlongs to 1-1/16 miles and once again meets runner-up MONTEREY BAY.

 

Looking at the free Trakus T-Charts at Keeneland.com, ASHIMA was clearly strongest over the final furlong-plus, clocking :16.01, the best in the field. She out-ran MONTEREY BAY by about 1-1/2 lengths over the final stretch. She also lost about 1-1/4 lengths in ground traveled in comparison to MONTEREY BAY. By all indications, stretching out in distance, ASHIMA would be the head-to-head play over her rival.

 

 

The kiss of death got to Friday’s Play of the Day as LOCKBACK was hammered to 6-to-5 favoritism and collapsed under the weight of the expectations. Ugh. We’re still a solid 16: 5-2-3 on the season, but let’s not go out without one more score!

 

AMANWELLA should get this card off to a fast start in Race 1, as trainer Graham Motion’s stable has found its stride at season’s end. This talented juvenile turns back in distance and ought to find a return to the maiden special weight ranks to her liking. Alcibiades winner DREAM EMPRESS returned to run a fantastic second yesterday in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, so the strength of AMANWELLA’s last race is undeniable.